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briancoughlanworldcitizen's Avatar Jump to comment 238 by briancoughlanworldcitizen

@Nairb. The whole demographic argument is pure hysteria designed to stampede the weak minded into overreaction.

I did this in excel a while ago. Check it out, and let me know what you think.

It assumes a muslim population increase of 4% per annum, and a "European" rate of 1%.

Muslim Pop Euro Pop
2008 30.00 470.00
2009 31.20 474.70
2010 32.45 479.45
2011 33.75 484.24
2012 35.10 489.08
2013 36.50 493.97
2014 37.96 498.91
2015 39.48 503.90
2016 41.06 508.94
2017 42.70 514.03
2018 44.41 519.17
2019 46.18 524.36
2020 48.03 529.61
2021 49.95 534.90
2022 51.95 540.25
2023 54.03 545.66
2024 56.19 551.11
2025 58.44 556.62
2026 60.77 562.19
2027 63.21 567.81
2028 65.73 573.49
2029 68.36 579.22
2030 71.10 585.02
2031 73.94 590.87
2032 76.90 596.78
2033 79.98 602.74
2034 83.17 608.77
2035 86.50 614.86
2036 89.96 621.01
2037 93.56 627.22
2038 97.30 633.49
2039 101.19 639.82
2040 105.24 646.22
2041 109.45 652.68
2042 113.83 659.21
2043 118.38 665.80
2044 123.12 672.46
2045 128.04 679.19
2046 133.16 685.98
2047 138.49 692.84
2048 144.03 699.77
2049 149.79 706.76
2050 155.78 713.83

Still not even close:-)

A muslim growth rate of 8% per annum (below), 8 times the non muslim rate would result in a small majority by 2050, but that would still not be a political majority as another 10 - 15 years would be needed for those born in the 2040's to reach voting age. Think about it, this is with a birth rate 8 TIMES HIGHER than non muslims, and it still takes us to 2065 to get a wafer thin political majority in the EU:-)

Muslim Pop Euro Pop
2008 30.00 470.00
2009 32.40 474.70
2010 34.99 479.45
2011 37.79 484.24
2012 40.81 489.08
2013 44.08 493.97
2014 47.61 498.91
2015 51.41 503.90
2016 55.53 508.94
2017 59.97 514.03
2018 64.77 519.17
2019 69.95 524.36
2020 75.55 529.61
2021 81.59 534.90
2022 88.12 540.25
2023 95.17 545.66
2024 102.78 551.11
2025 111.00 556.62
2026 119.88 562.19
2027 129.47 567.81
2028 139.83 573.49
2029 151.02 579.22
2030 163.10 585.02
2031 176.14 590.87
2032 190.24 596.78
2033 205.45 602.74
2034 221.89 608.77
2035 239.64 614.86
2036 258.81 621.01
2037 279.52 627.22
2038 301.88 633.49
2039 326.03 639.82
2040 352.11 646.22
2041 380.28 652.68
2042 410.70 659.21
2043 443.56 665.80
2044 479.05 672.46
2045 517.37 679.19
2046 558.76 685.98
2047 603.46 692.84
2048 651.74 699.77
2049 703.87 706.76
2050 760.18 713.8

Sun, 21 Sep 2008 09:27:00 UTC | #238181