God-fearing
I should say no theory until Sutherland's work which is amazing. I referenced his Nature paper in my original post as state of the art.

Sutherland is my new hero. You Brits should be proud--his discovery is hugely important.

*Edit* My earlier point is that let's assume Sutherland has it completely right. Saying life can and should arise from 2-aminooxazole and other chemicals to form RNA and ultimately life (as they clearly did on Earth) is just as risky a claim as saying prokaryotes must advance into terrestrial vertebrates. There are many many steps that must occur.

Knowing what we do about evolution, it is easy to work backward in time to estbalish an organism's path but going forward is unpredictable and hindered by extinction at every turn. One can easily imagine this chemistry occuring on other planets but if one thing is out of place (like copper or more carbon reserves or ammonia or amino acids, etc) it means extinction.