As rotten as the Church may be, its problem in this arena is mainly one of impotence. Suppose that it correctly views Lukashenko as a tyrant that should not legitimately have power. But what can it do to remove him? It has no armies, no threat of force, no real clout.

If the Vatican were to make an impressive denouncement of Lukashenko, then what would the effect be? Would he back down? Would nations rise up against him, emboldened by the RCC? And what would happen to the Catholics living in Belarus?

The Church is just craven. It may not like what is happening in Belarus, but it sure as hell isn’t going to do anything to harm its status in that country. And I sincerely doubt that it is playing nice with Lukashenko so that it can mount some kind of underground resistance and eventual overthrow.